On the ballot this November is a proposed constitutional amendment banning same-sex unions. That’s not such a shock in the traditionally conservative state, but the poll numbers are a bit surprising:

Fifty-three percent of likely voters said they would vote for the amendment, and 43 percent would oppose it, the poll found, indicating that three weeks before Election Day opponents still have a long way to go to make Virginia the first state in the country to defeat a same-sex marriage amendment.

The only part of the state to oppose the measure was Northern Virginia, where voters rejected it 55 percent to 42 percent, further evidence that the Washington suburbs have become a political and social world apart from the rest of Virginia. Respondents in the rest of the state backed the measure 58 percent to 38 percent, according to the survey, conducted over three days last week.

Several political scientists who have studied state ballot measures said the polling data from Virginia appeared to defy expectations, given the commonwealth’s reputation as a conservative state.

“This is quite a surprise,” said Daniel A. Smith, an associate professor of political science at the University of Florida. “In an ostensibly conservative state like Virginia, you’d expect to see the numbers up around 60 or 70 percent.” (more. . .)

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